Thursday, February 19, 2009

The Next Revolution: Rural vs. Urban


Continental thinkers and commodity traders alike are advance the idea of a fractured Untied States in the future. The question is, where would the cracks emerge. Many ideas have been advanced over the years as to how a theoretical revolution would progress, but most of these fall from favor as their decisive backbone either crumbles are falls from the forefront.

One option, and probably the most likely is Rural vs. Urban. In this scenario the pivotal factor is food and natural resources. This would unfold with scarcity becoming such a huge problem that vast tracts of land used for agriculture and minerals is nationalized by the nation, essentially eliminating all rural rights in the name of the greater, urban good. The difficulty of this scenario, and the likelihood of it being the most bloody, is that city dwellers, by large, are pussy. The land that gives the nation its inherent wealth is inhabited by hardened farmers, stubborn, ranchers, and crazy survivalists... essentially the last people who would go down without a fight. This is compounded by the fact that basically all the nuclear weapons in the United States are located on these lands... hmmm.

If this fragmentation would occur it would result in cites becoming city-states of sorts surrounded by lawless boarder lands. The rural elements would have a lot of leverage when it came to trade. The cities would need food, and they would pay handily for it, also any intercity trade would be taxed heavily by the rural lands that it would pass through.

The rural elements would most likely be a loose confederation of communities with no strong central governing body, leaving the populous to basically fend for themselves. This would structure would wear on many, causing them to sell their land to large, city based, corporate entities, who would in turn profit from the resources and the taxing of trade.

The cities themselves would shrink, population would decrease due to inadequate food and supplies, not to mention water which too would be an important bargaining chip for the rural people. Settlers would set out to rural lands to find a better life, and they would essentially be reduced to share croppers. Industry would grind to a crawl, reducing the numbers of cars and equipment, reverting the rural elements back to a more manual existence with the help of the escaped city folk.

This would only last so long, cites would band together with surrounding rural areas to form states in which power would essentially be shared between urban and rural. Yet, rural areas would still have leverage over the cities, creating a rural led plurality governing over the states. In end, the few would govern over the majority.

Not that this will happen, and I am not advocating it by any means. But, I would be surprised if these fracture points are not exposed in the near future.

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